Understanding the limitations of the likelihood ratio for probative value of forensic evidence

This is a lecture I gave to the US National Forensic College, Statistics Panel
on 12 August 2021. It covers what is the likelihood ratio (LR) and what does it really tell us; Confusion about the LR and Bayes Theorem; Why most uses of the LR in forensic evidence (especially mixed profile DNA evidence) are fundamentally flawed and incorrect; Why the fundamental flaws and errors in the LR might not help out the defence case – the opportunity prior

Understandinglimitationslikelihood